[dissentowner]

Ok, here we go.
Post 102 HG posts the following:

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

So I went back and looked at the thread from start to finish and here are some observations.

Bizaro and Oling start talking game theories right away, don't even have a throw away post. Throughout the thread they also talk directly to each other, so I highly doubt they are both hosts as it could connect them down the road.

Diss asked a few questions (3 I believe) in the thread, this may be something to watch as asking questions is a tool to steer talk away from topics the hosts don't want being talked about.

After Mazrim posts the explanation the only people who posted who didn't thank it were Lego, Timbo, Squiggs and the Elephant. This one is probably nothing but I thought I would note it anyway.

GGG dives right into the game, similar to Bizaro and Oling.

Elephant really only had throw away posts, could be they are just new but they could be trying to fly under the radar.

Timbo had a couple throw away posts, a little bit of game talk but I would expect more from him.

Squiggs is "here" but not here, maybe I am just bitter he was golfing.

Right now I am leaning to the safe play, and trying to aim for the hosts who are trying to coast along. I am weary so far of Diss, Timbo, Lego, and Elephant. Obviously I have nothing concrete, just mostly gut feeling from reading the flow of the thread.

Here he chooses what I believe is 3 town and 1 scum. He has absolutely zero reasoning for these choices and does not even really mention anything about Lego yet he is on his list. If Timbo gets lynched right away he can say he was on his suspicion list to cover his ass there.

Post #126 is Timbo saying this:

Originally Posted by Timbo

At this point in the game a lynch seems to always be a crapshoot. At this point I have more evidence leading me to who are passengers.
Dissentowner has been quite meek which makes me slightly suspicious.
GGG comes out very quickly pointing and accusing. Maybe too early IMO
Hockeyguy does as well however he is back to his old self gaming the game again heheh, so I feel fairly confident at this point that he is a true blue passenger.
Oling I don't know if its his name or his avatar that makes me leery of his intentions.
With that being said I think he's also a passenger.
Devo22 has not done much IMO
Peanut might be a rotten nut but it's a gut feeling.
Puxlut I dunno
ECF I dunno
Bizzaro to early for me to tell

Right now I have suspicions on Dissentowner, GGG, Peanut.

So between HG and Timbo that have put early suspicions on the newbies, PE and Peanut. Also interesting that he is suspicious of GGG for being aggressive but he says HG15 is a "true blue passenger" for the exact same reason.

Post #198 and Timbo votes for me. Funny how it was him that started the voting on me between the two of them and HG who took over afterward.

I will point this one out again even though I pointed it out before because it is a telling post imo and shows Timbo fishing for info early to see how the passengers will answer.

Originally Posted by Timbo

I'm hoping the timing of night 0 might have been different.
But if you are correct then we could have 4 players on the same page assuming that the capt could effectively communicate strategy in the 30 words.

Interesting(open) question if you were the Capt and had your choice of who to infect first.
Who would you choose?
A newb or a known strong player?

Then the next page HG15 posts this in response to that post.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

This comment makes me think Timbo is a passenger. I've been thinking about it and I can't come up with a reason a host would ask this question.

Really? The real question should have been why would a passenger ask this? What can we possibly benefit from discussing it? I think Timbo asked that question on his own and HG was not happy about it so he is trying to do damage control here.

bizaro kind of picks up on it and posts this in response.

Originally Posted by bizaro86

The obvious reason a host would ask is to try and beat the smuggler at game theory. If everyone thinks the host will pick a strong player, the smuggler will hide a strong player, which reduces the value to the host of the spore. However, if the host knows that, they can then pick a weak/inactive player, which would help their numbers.

I'm not saying Timbo's host, (he could just as easily be the smuggler looking for help, or a passenger trying to generate conversation/ideas) but I wouldn't exclude him as host based on that comment.

HG replies with this:

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

There was no talk about who would you give the spore to before that, so it would be a bad play by the hosts to start drumming up that conversation and get people thinking about it.

Go back and have a look at the start, whenever there was talk about the spore not only was HG very knowledgable about how the thing worked when some of us were confused but anytime it was brought up he was quick to tell us not to think about the spore and that it didn't matter.

More to come...