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Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
Amazing stuff Bingo. Very interesting.
First comment is about using draft value charts. If you use it as an historical measurement piece, it paints a great picture. Individual drafts though are small sample, and that method may be fool hardy. If you've scouted these players, it's not the 3rd pick that's 0.85 of the 1st pick anymore. Now it's Hanifin vs McDavid which is a different story.
Also, games played is the best surrogate for value we have, but doesn't really tell the whole story. If disagree that 500 games from Jonathan Toews isn't less valuable than 600 games from Bryan Little. I'm not sure there's much we can do there, but with the consideration when evaluating how much fidelity you want to place in the model with regards to your overall draft strategy
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Don't disagree on either point, but if you step hard into subjective analysis the whole thing is worthless.
If you use hard line objective math then you have an analysis with an understanding that it's flawed.
I'd rather be in the second camp as a starting point.
Your .85 to 1.00 example is a very good one, but at least that goes away as you go deeper into the draft.
We all know that Hanifin will be there at 3 so moving up to 3 and targeting that player is a guarantee, or at least close to one compared to say valuing the 9th pick right now versus the 15h and not knowing how the dominos will fall.
Better to have a historic view of the value of 9 vs 15 in your back pocket when evaluating the differential.
I think if I was at the table I'd run the average of 8-10 vs 14-16 to be less specific. In that case you have .54 vs .36 and a difference of .18 which is a very high 2nd round pick.
And once again despite that differential it would take more than that to do it.