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Old 06-24-2015, 10:08 AM   #2275
bizaro86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen View Post
Let's say it is 3 Host and 1 Turned:

Night 3 - SebC/Someone
Night 4 - Someone/SebC
Night 5 - Spore Carrier

So 8-4 right now. Let's prepare for the worst and say we do kill town today. That's 7-4. If Spore Carrier is town, I feel strongly they should pass the spore to Puxlut. Keep it guaranteed 7-4. If he passes it to Receiver and Receiver turns, it's 6-5 and if we lynch a townie we automatically lose at 5-5 (and the only way to avoid that is for the town to be perfect and all 6 work together). If we trusted Spore Carrier completely we could lynch Receiver, hope to get rid of the Spore and Scum. But that almost forces us to put all our trust in someone who we know had a 50/50 chance of being turned and could be straight up lying.

If we kill a scum, there's some leeway. 8-3 would allow a judgement call for Spore Carrier to do what they feel is best.
If you assume day 6 ends 7-4 and whoever gets the spore doesn't flip, I think they should send it to their top spore candidate or the second place person, not pux. My reasoning is that I think it gives us the best chance of winning.

If you send it to pux at morning 7 its guaranteed 7-4, someone else it'll be either 7-4/6-5. However, if you lynch the spore carrier at the end of day 7 your worst case scenario is 6-4 either way. The difference is that if someone else had it, the spore doesn't travel again before day 8. (unless the captain kills a turned, which helps us).

So if pux gets it tonight morning of day 8 it could be 6-5 and we're at lynch or lose. If someone else gets it our worst case is 6-4, which would require a mislynch and a 50/50 turned for us to lose, which at least improves our odds of getting a day 9 and another chance to lynch a host.

Our group lynching of host has been terrible, I'd be willing to put that into the hands of one person who has received the spore (presumably from a turned and/or host) so is likely town. Also, the agent can check them the next night to help confirm. The other benefit is we keep pux as a confirmed townie, which helps with hunting scum from a numbers point of view.
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