Oiler's past aside, I like the idea of going after Dubnyk. He seems like the type to fit in our system, and based on the Minny run, we know he can handle starter and be a workhorse too. Treliving link in Arizona perhaps?
I think 5 years is ok. I doubt Dubnyk would just randomly fall off a cliff after year 2. Furthermore, I'm more inclined to believe Gilles will take about 3 years to develop and at that stage even if Ortio is capable of taking a 1A/AB tandem, I'm not sure Gilles would be totally ready for joining the 1A/1B. On top of that, if an injury occurs, what do we have? Doesn't that mean we have to acquire another goalie? Furthermore, most of the assumption also believes that both Ortio and Gillies and MacDonald all pan out.
Spoiler!
Not talking money, how would the development of goalies go?
Theoretically... could this be feasible?
Next year (1) - Dubnyk starter, Ortio backup
2 Dubnyk starter, Ortio backup (Would hope for 1A/1B)
3 Dubnyk/ Ortio 1A/1B, Gillies backup
4 Dubnyk/ Ortio 1A/1B, Gillies backup (Would hope for Ortio/Gilles 1A/1B w/ Dubnyk expendable)
5 Ortio/Gilles 1A/1B MacDonald backup; Dubnyk traded?
Ortio is 24, Gillies is 21, Macdonald is 19
Dubnyk is 29.
Above is assuming the goalies finally hit form around the age of 25-26 even though prime age of goalies is usually assumed around age 27/28. It also assumes we keep all our goalie prospects.
Another time theoretical is if we become playoff contenders in 2-3 years, Dubnyk is early 30s, Ortio is 26-27 (prime), Gilles is 23-24 (Still a little early), MacDonald (21-22) probably just breaking AHL. If we are competitive for 3-4 years, Dubnyk gone, Ortio 29-31, Gillies 26-28 (prime), MacDonald 24-26 backup/regular. Based on age alone, other goalies like Lack, Talbot etc fit fine too as we just need someone reasonably established only a few years older than Ortio but we equipped to show him the way.
Sorry, I'm just musing aloud. Someone feel free to poke holes in my thoughts.