Quote:
Originally Posted by mikephoen
I agree that luck plays a much bigger role than most will admit.
I think it's kind of like poker. You can play poker with an extremely high level of skill, but over a few hands that means nothing. Over thousands of hands, the skill level shows through, but over 10 hands? Results will be heavily influenced by luck.
The problem with drafting is that you never get thousands of chances, you only get a small handful. Complicating it even further, you need to wait 5+ years to actually see what the real results were.
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Add another 3 years of development time on top of that. After 8+ years, most teams will have replaced the people in top management positions. It's tough to evaluate drafting on a large scale.