Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
I was really surprised at how quantity beat draft acumen almost 100% of the time.
Clearly there are particulars that defy the numbers though. Take the Kings in 2005. They draft 2 guys that play and have 7 others that bust completely. The end up with a -475 in games played suggesting failure in crude terms. They miss out on Marc Staal, Mason Raymond, Kris Letang so not a good draft right?
The two players that play? Kopitar and Quick.
|
The fact that quantity beats draft acumen has been what Trevling and the Flames have been preaching with their talk about ledges. They have sort of admitted that when it comes to a particular teams pick there might be 5 guys evaluated to be equivalent prospects.
The Levels are smaller in the first round. The top group of 4 last year to a group of 5-6 and then a group of 10.
I would think that if you limited your analysis to the first 2 rounds, because the bigger breaks in levels draft acumen wins out over quantity....
also your statistics do not do justice to drafting a D-man for the last 4 years.. A forward who does not make it to the NHL by 22 is almost done. A defense-man who does make it by 22 is a great pick. Forward will have a lot more games than a d-man.