Quote:
Originally Posted by starseed
Im giving up until tomorrow night. It is past midnight and the deadline isnt until friday. I am running in circles, but I am building a notes list. Also here is a quick observation from my sheet:
In creating my spreadsheet from the skeleton of the spreadsheet from last game, I noticed that around the mid point of the game, no scum player had targeted (with a vote) the townies known to me at the time, at a rate of less than 50%. After filling in the votes/unvotes, I looked at who targeted whom. There are 4 known townies to me now, outside of Puxlut, whom nobody has cast a vote for. Myself, AS, girly, and ecf.
Oling has been the only one to target all four with a vote, however he was also one of only two players to target more than 7 players with a vote. Outside of Activestick and Girly who only voted for 1 and 2 separate people respectively, 7 players have voted for a known townie at a rate of half or more. They are:
Devo22 (3 for 5)
Oling (4 for 8)
PE (3 for 5)
Peanut (3 for 4)
SebC (2 for 4)
Squiggs (3 for 5)
Timbo (2 for 4)
Again, last game had 100% of the scum on a list like that, but different players have different strategies, so who knows. I have a very strong feeling that a couple of the hosts are in there.
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Ok guys I decided rather than just point out how flawed starseed's analysis is (it's pretty damned flawed) I decided to do my own stat tracking with the same idea. I analysed every vote cast in rounds 1-3 by players still currently alive and counted how many times each of us voted for a confirmed town. I did not do any analysis of rounds 4 and 5 because there are no confirmed town in play for those rounds. I also isolated everyone's final vote for each so there's a set of numbers with possible "noise votes" filtered out.
I did not include myself as confirmed town because I can't prove that to anyone. Starseed on the other hand is listing himself as town, and using all the votes against him in rounds 4 and 5 to
horribly skew the data that he half heartedly presents in the post I quoted in his favour. Anyways, here is a breakdown of everyone's votes for confirmed townies in rounds 1-3 with their total votes followed by their final votes.
devo22 - 3/4 total, 3/3 final
Timbo - 2/5 total, 2/3 final
bizarro86 - 3/5 total, 3/3 final
squiggs96 - 2/5 total, 2/3 final
Puxlut - 1/5 total, 0/3 final
GGG - 2/10 total, 2/3 final
Peanut - 3/4 total, 3/3 final
Party Elephant - 2/5 total, 2/3 final
SebC - 2/2 total, 2/2 final
Lego Man/starseed - 2/5 total, 2/3 final * note, since it's only rounds 1-3 these votes were all cast before lego man was replaced
mrkajz44 - 1/4 total, 1/3 final
Hockeyguy15 - 2/5 total, 2/3 final
Oling_Roachinen - 3/7 total, 2/3 final
dissentowner - 1/5 total, 1/3 final
There's not a ton to take away from this, but it will become more useful on our next cardflip as it will add two rounds worth of votes to the data pool. Some interesting things I've noticed though:
-devo, bizarro, peanut, and seb's final votes were 100% for confirmed townies. These 4 posters are also the only 4 that have a confirmed town vote rate greater than 50% of their total votes
-seb was the only person to cast 100% of his votes on confirmed town
-11 posters have more than 50% of their final votes on confirmed town (makes sense as every lynch was on confirmed town)
-Timbo, squiggs, me, Lego Man, and hockeyguy all have the exact same vote rates, both in final and total votes.
This last point kind of makes me laugh since three of them, myself included, are on starseed's statistically proven scum list, yet he has the exact same town vote rate as all of us.