OK, so I am going to do a lego-style summary post. These are not my complete thoughts on the whole thread (I did not have time to read everything), but this is as much sleep as I am willing to lose today.
I included thoughts from looking at vote patterns on my spreadsheet and compared it to the notes I had from last game. I noticed that posters who targeted multiple people by mid game were much less likely to be scum. The top 9 had 1 scum, the bottom 7 had 3 scum. 'Wide Focus Four' means one of the four posters who have targeted many other posters. ‘Narrow focus five’ are one of the five posters who targeted the least amount of players (I am one of the five).
As mentioned before, all scum had targeted known townies by mid game at a rate of 50% or worse. ‘Bad Aim Seven’ are the ones who were in that group this time around.
bizaro86
‘Wide focus four’. He made that post that recommended the best strategy going forward from the Oling to Girly spore transfer. See Lego’s post.
If mrkajz is scum: biz touted his suspicions for mrkaj, but did not vote until 10:03 to lynch him. Mind you, he probably would just stay down unless he knew Oling would not vote.
devo22
‘Bad Aim Seven’. Pulled a CPM2 scum starseed play in latching onto the known townie for direction. Minor scum tell in lamenting the town’s woes.
dissentowner
‘Wide focus four’ Focused on only a few posters at this point last game, but has had one of the wider bands of focus in this game. Change of strategy, but it could be learning from last game. He did pull back from the HG campaign once realizing his shortsightedness. Initially, I thought he was behaving very scummy, but I got the exact same feelings about him in previous games where he was town.
GGG
‘Wide focus four’. Last game, GGG voted for the most unique posters and was town. He also has a similar really good batting average in avoiding voting for known townies. Good scum hunting vibes.
Hockeyguy15
Much wider focus and better aim than last game when he was scum. Hard to determine, but leaning town. Has had good scum hunting posts in the game thus far.
mrkajz44
‘Narrow focus five’. Voted for second place vote getters early on, potentially so as to create a defensible voting record. Saved from lynch a couple of times. If he flips scum, PE should be right behind him.
Oling_Roachinen
‘Wide focus four’. Put focus of attention on himself by announcing transfer of spore.
‘Bad Aim Seven’ Voted for all known townies.
Party Elephant
‘Bad Aim Seven’. When mrkaj was near lynch, PE switched votes from a third player to ECF to help save mrkaj. When pressed, he is quick to attack in CPM3 Oling scum fashion, where he would pick on something else to mask the fact that it is a move that saved mrkaj. Theory brought forward by Lego where he pointed out that he could have been setting up HG before girly flipped town. See my post here:
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1534
Behaved noobish in the beginning, and is now playing a very good scum like game.
Minor scum tell in lamenting the town’s woes.
Peanut
‘Bad Aim Seven’. ‘Narrow focus five’. As an outsider, she was on my short list. No surprise that she has immediately been on me from the start with no solid reasoning. Excellent work standing in the background. Many posts with no real content in them, although a few good ones.
Also, I feel like this is a play to help get bizaro to see Peanut as a friendly poster, and thus get his support in the future?
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpost.php?p=5329782
Also, looks like she is not voting for me because of me, but because of legoman, who had some of the most useful/thoughtful posts of the game, even though they were few in number.
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1673
SebC
Switched focus away from AS after his mini-reveal.
‘Bad Aim Seven’. ‘Narrow focus five’. Play style that may not be helpful to the town as it cuts down on pressure on scum. Not good strategy for scum hunting.
Squiggs96
Same ratios of hitting known townies as when he was a townie last game, and had a middling band of focus, just as last game when he was a townie.
‘Bad Aim Seven’. Defended leading vote getters, including when mrkaj was close to lynch. If mrkaj ends up town, squiggs would be suspicious for trying to build up credibility in this way. Also squiggs seemed to target mrkaj as a potential target should ECF come up town, which he did:
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1241
Others reasoning surrounding SebC ignore in townie list – was it addressed by squiggs?
Squiggs echoed Pux’s support for a peanut lynch, so I am not sure squiggs and peanut are connected.
Reasons I outlined here:
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1623
Timbo
‘Bad Aim Seven’. ‘Narrow focus five’. Aim is worse, and has a more narrow focus than last game as a townie. Set up early that he had doubts about the ECF lynch. I think this is more of a scum manoeuvre than anything else. Pulled a CPM2 scum starseed play in latching onto the known townie for direction. Constant little quick questions, which is something I did as a scum player, but I don’t think it’s a strong scum tell. Might even be good town strategy.
Some posters seem to be distancing themselves while working together, and some are legitimately distanced from others. I think the best strategy is for me to vote for my #1 or #2 choice before looking at the connections based on the flip. I think I have 6 players that I think are scum, and clearly they all cannot be.
My top two choices to get a host flip are: Party Elephant and squiggs96. Both flips would get us solid information.
Unvote
Vote: Party Elephant