Let's assume the following happened:
Night 0: Oling receives the spore and does not turn
Night 1: Oling passes the spore to Girly and she does not turn
Day 2: Girly is lynched
Night 2: The spore is returned to the Captain
Night 3: The spore is passed
If Oling is not a host, then I can assume the GA has investigated him and found he has not be turned as of night 3 at the latest. No one on Day 4 announced they had the spore. That in itself is not that interesting, because assuming the above scenario played out the only options on Day 4 are:
- A passenger received the spore and was not turned. They wouldn't know they had received the spore if they weren't turned
- A passenger received the spore and was turned. They wouldn't announce as their endgame likely has changed.
- A host received the spore and was not turned. They obviously wouldn't announce that they had it, as it would draw attention to them.
Now that it is Day 5, the same 1-3 options above are in play. As of this post everyone has made at least one post on Day 5. Not one person has announced they received the spore on Night 3 (would have been told on Night 4), and no one has said they sent it anywhere. This means there is at least one passenger turned from night 3, and they would have known this all throughout day 4. They also know where the spore is right now. If that person is turned, there are two people that are turned. The good news is if we have a 5 in 14 chance of lynching somebody that helps the town (3 hosts and 2 turned). The bad news is, we don't know who is turned. The worse case scenario is the spore was passed to the GA and he/she is turned. This also assumes that the hosts haven't passed the spore back and forth to each other, as I suggested in my last off the wall theory. I can see why they would do this, and it makes us townies discuss the spore more than some people feel the need to.
I thought the odds were high that Oling would have received the spore on night 3. He disagreed. Since he announced he did not receive it he is either telling the truth, he is turned, or he is a host. I'm really not sure where to put him right now.
Let's assume, for this scenario, that a passenger was turned on Day 4 (from Night 3's receipt). Let's further assume, that it is not Oling. Since the turned passenger wants to increase the turned population, who would he send it to? Likely it wouldn't be mrkajz or starseed, since they were the two leading vote getters. Maybe they go for an experienced player. Maybe they go for a 1st timer. I think the theory on where to send it becomes very difficult. I'm hoping if the GA investigated Oling or Seb last night, that they investigate the other once Night 5 comes up.
I know many don't want to discuss the spore, but I think it's a key part of the game, especially now that there are possibly two turned passengers. I think it can help with who to vote for. Although it's ideal to lynch a host, a nice plan B is lynching a turned. The perfect scenario is to lynch a host and have the GA investigate one of the turned. Hopefully we start hitting on this soon. If we lynch a non-turned passenger today, and the GA doesn't investigate someone he/she can kill, we'd be down to 5 or 6 bad guys vs. 8 or 7 town. This is not a situation I want to be in. At that point it could be over on Day 7, with a host slaughtering of the town.