[Komskies]

Saw this in a reddit post and didn't see it posted here, so I thought I would share.

http://donttellmeaboutheart.blogspot...lity-tool.html

There are some pretty cool stats and methodology behind the tool, but the part I liked best was the interactive chart at the bottom of the page showing draft probability (chance player is available at x pick). Here is a summary of his methodology:

This is not simply just an average of projections but instead a model based on Bayesian inference. Bayesian models begin with a 'prior' probability distribution, used as a reasonable first guess. Then that guess is refined as we add new information. It works the same way your brain does (hopefully). As more information is added, your prior belief is either confirmed or revised to some degree. The degree to which it is refined is a function of how reliable the new information is. This draft projection model works the same way.

For a prior estimate of when each prospect might be taken, I created a probability distribution centred around a consensus of best-player rankings. I created my own consensus rankings of the past four drafts using ISS Hockey, McKeens and The Hockey News. The key at this stage is that this prior distribution is only as confident as these types of projections have been in the past. The distribution is based on the errors of these rankings over the past four years. They don't take into account team needs (which team's should never consider but whether they do or not is another discussion) or when certain teams have picks. These consensus rankings give us a reasonable first guess as to where a certain player is likely to get picked.

For instance, a guy like Provorov, whom I assume most of us would love to pick, only has about a 0.5% chance of being available at 15th overall, whereas there's almost a 72% chance a guy like Svechnikov is available at 15.

If I sort the list to the Flames and look at players whom fall in the 25% to 75% chance of availability range, I get the following 7 players:

1. Mikko Rantanen - 31%
2. Kyle Connor - 38%
3. Timo Meier - 46%
4. Nick Merkley - 54%
5. Travis Konecny - 63%
6. Colin White - 66%
7. Evgeni Svechnikov - 72%