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Originally Posted by Lego Man
bizaro86: In my mind, post 567 went a LONG way to convincing me he's a town member. I especially value this part, and wished we listened...
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Here's the entirety of post 567 actually, because it had the opposite effect for me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bizaro86
So I went through the spore/oling/girly thing in my head, and have a few thoughts.
Oling admitted to getting the spore night 1. That leaves two possibilities:
1) Oling is a host
-That implies that someone else was turned night 1 and kept quiet.
-Oling having the plan in advance where he is the key player in the plan does seem awfully suspicious, by declaring it "before he knew" he had the spore, it seems more credible. But that is exactly what a scum oling would do if this was a plan to control the flow of the game.
-In the past when oling was scum he was able to control the game and lead the town down irrelevant paths, which would be consistent with this theory.
2) Oling really got the spore and didn't turn
-He did send it to girly
-He has terrible luck having explained his plan in advance
-He thinks girly is the most likely person to be a host. Sending it to the most likely host is the best way to prevent extra people getting turned, plus if you lynch them you get a double whammy - kill a host plus stop the spore for a day.
If we think 1) is more likely, we should lynch oling.
If we think 2) is more likely, then it's 50/50 that girly turned if she's not a host. If she turned or is host, we should probably lynch her and stop the spore, plus reduce their numbers. If she didn't turn, we may want to keep the spore under our control, and lynch the person we think is most likely a host. So far the best argument for someone else being host is by Legoman that Timbo is a host.
I think the best course of action may be the following:
-Assume girly hasn't turned, so lynch someone else, my suggestion is Timbo.
-Then, have the government agent investigate girly. That way if she has turned, she dies anyway, so no downside to assuming otherwise and lynching someone else.
-Have girly send the spore back to oling. That way, if oling is a host we get the benefit of nobody getting turned that night.
This plan has at least some benefit under all the scenarios that are plausible, except possibly girly being host, which I think is the least likely scenario.
I think this is what we should do. Timbo has changed his posting style, and his vote for activestick was not well supported, it felt more like a pile-on from scum to make sure a townie got lynched.
Vote:Timbo
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It's counter intuitive. He says if I'm host that means GirlySports wasn't sent the spore, but then goes on to say that if GirlySports isn't lynched she should send the spore to me in case I'm host. Other than me being opposed to playing hot sporetato, he already said if I was host that GirlySports didn't have the spore and someone else was turned on night 1. Following his logic at the beginning of the post, instead of saying that GirlySports should send the spore to me, it would have been more appropriate to say that GirlySports could confirm/deny having the spore.
Him trying to get GirlySports to send the spore to me....well I already know that the host tried to send it to me once.