Quote:
Originally Posted by bizaro86
I also think at some point we should figure out whether we want to send the spore to puxslut to get a free day, or attempt to keep her as a confirmed townie for the endgame when it comes down to numbers and a confirmed townie helps with the odds. Does anyone have any thoughts on how I could convert those to expected values? I feel like I should be able to figure out the "right" answer to this, but am having trouble getting a foothold on the problem. Granted, this is less important than figuring out who the host is, but I don't want it to get lost in the shuffle in case we end up running up to a hammer at some point.
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I sort of assumed that the pass to Pux was the obvious play:
1) We keep track of the spore
2) Pux will not turn, so we avoid a 50/50 flip
3) We will know it was sent to Pux and therefore can decide as a group where it goes
I see what you are saying in the sense that once Pux gets the spore once her (almost) confirmed town status goes away as she could receive the spore back, but I think that's too far down the road. Given that Oling is truthful, there is no spore today and it will be handed out tonight. Therefore the scenario would play out as:
1) Player A receives spore on Night 3 and does not turn (obviously the person has to not turn for this to work)
2) Player A passes spore to Pux on Night 4
3) Player A tells everyone on Day 5 and we decide on a new target
4) Pux passes spore on Night 5 to hopefully scum
5) Unsure of spore status (much like Day 2) on Day 6 as we don't know for sure if it worked
That's a lot of time to control the spore when we feel pretty good there are no turned as this point and keeps no turned until at least Day 6.
HG - I agree this doesn't apply if someone has the spore today, but should someone receive it tomorrow and not turn, there should be a general agreement of what they should do that night (as they will not know they had the spore until the night phase when they have to pass and cannot consult everyone)