Quote:
Originally Posted by bizaro86
I've been thinking through the thread, and thought I'd share my most recent thoughts in the form of a top 3/bottom three "likely to be scum" list. No particular order.
Least Likely to be scum/most town (reason in brackets)
bizaro86 (I can see my role pm)
puxslut (no counter-claim yet means she is almost certainly town)
sebc (playing a strategy that he wouldn't play if he was scum)
Most likely to be scum (reason in brackets)
Timbo (Change in posting style from previous game.) A timbo lynch also has the potential to out mrkajz as someone who has had a staged argument with him, which is a potential benefit
Dissentowner (Change in posting style from previous game, appears more flustered than I would expect when voted for, resorted to tox clause gaming)
LegoMan (Flying under the radar again, did it last game with a random number generator shtick, this game has a very different posting style, but the same result)
I also think at some point we should figure out whether we want to send the spore to puxslut to get a free day, or attempt to keep her as a confirmed townie for the endgame when it comes down to numbers and a confirmed townie helps with the odds. Does anyone have any thoughts on how I could convert those to expected values? I feel like I should be able to figure out the "right" answer to this, but am having trouble getting a foothold on the problem. Granted, this is less important than figuring out who the host is, but I don't want it to get lost in the shuffle in case we end up running up to a hammer at some point.
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If anyone gets the spore tonight they should send it to Oling rather than Puxlut. If someone gets the spore tonight it means they were sent the spore last night and weren't infected, which means Girly didn't have the spore and that Oling was lying. I doubt that's the case, but on the off chance it happens sending it to Oling would be better than wasting our 1 free pass to Puxlut. So really we don't need to figure this out today as night 4 should be the earliest chance a non-infected passenger has to pass the spore.