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Old 06-01-2015, 11:08 PM   #916
bizaro86
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I've been thinking through the thread, and thought I'd share my most recent thoughts in the form of a top 3/bottom three "likely to be scum" list. No particular order.

Least Likely to be scum/most town (reason in brackets)
bizaro86 (I can see my role pm)
puxslut (no counter-claim yet means she is almost certainly town)
sebc (playing a strategy that he wouldn't play if he was scum)

Most likely to be scum (reason in brackets)
Timbo (Change in posting style from previous game.) A timbo lynch also has the potential to out mrkajz as someone who has had a staged argument with him, which is a potential benefit
Dissentowner (Change in posting style from previous game, appears more flustered than I would expect when voted for, resorted to tox clause gaming)
LegoMan (Flying under the radar again, did it last game with a random number generator shtick, this game has a very different posting style, but the same result)

I also think at some point we should figure out whether we want to send the spore to puxslut to get a free day, or attempt to keep her as a confirmed townie for the endgame when it comes down to numbers and a confirmed townie helps with the odds. Does anyone have any thoughts on how I could convert those to expected values? I feel like I should be able to figure out the "right" answer to this, but am having trouble getting a foothold on the problem. Granted, this is less important than figuring out who the host is, but I don't want it to get lost in the shuffle in case we end up running up to a hammer at some point.
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