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Originally Posted by Textcritic
The Flames defense core is absolutely not too old to compete.
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It's too old for a rebuild. It's too old for the idealistic improvement of multiple young defensemen. It's not too old to compete. The old defense is part of what allowed the Flames to compete this year. I just wish that someone young other than Brodie was developed. Luckily, Wootherspoon got some time in the playoffs. More prospects will be closer to taking spots next year. Even disregarding age, it is reasonable to assume that some of the defense will not play as well next year. Not all of the top 5 will match career years.
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Originally Posted by Textcritic
The question is about next season, not two years down the road.
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The urgent changes that pertain to next season also pertain to following seasons. However, the age problem will have greater magnitude as time passes.
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Originally Posted by Textcritic
It is a process, and one I expect will occur with player turnover in the course of three years.
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I agree, Brodie, Gio, and maybe Russell are more likely to stay. Anyone else has a realistic chance of being moved.
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Originally Posted by Textcritic
I interpret from this that you see a drop off for next year. Please explain where that will occur.
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I don't necessarily see a drop off (as long as Hiller stays). I just don't see it improving either. That being said, Jon Gillies looks very promising for down the road. The Flames are as set (long-term) in net as can be!
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Originally Posted by Textcritic
The Flames are very well positioned heading into the summer to make some significant upgrades whether by way of FA acquisitions or by trade. They will probably not sign any "big" free agents, but I do think improvement can and possibly will occur with a savvy trade or two. Besides, these sorts of deals don't always have to be big to make a huge difference. Russell was acquired in a low interest trade-and-sign, and the signing of Derek Engelland was widely panned as a terrible deal. Both payed massive dividends this season.
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This is true. I can see them upgrading on Byron with a solid FA or trade piece. If we could do another Russell-like trade, that would be great. The Flames probably still have the same proscouts, so I guess it could happen. But I think the Engelland signing still looks pretty bad. He was pretty ineffective for the majority of the season. When the top pairing is Brodie and Gio again, he'll probably be the same or worse than he was for most of this season. The cap or term is not terrible though, and he definitely has value in injury situations. Someone will definitely pass him on the depth chart within the next two years, and he will no longer have the same value in injury situations.
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Originally Posted by Textcritic
You need to do a better job of sussing out your superficially arbitrary "slightly below 50%" figure.
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Here was my logic:
Anaheim has a 100% chance.
One of San Jose or LA, probably LA, will make it.
The central will get both wild cards spots.
Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver, and Arizona fight over the last spot.
Does Calgary have a higher chance than all 3 of those teams combined? I think it's pretty close. Vancouver gives the bulk of their collective chance, although I agree that the Flames will probably be better than them. Every year, at least one team drastically improves, and it might be Edmonton next year. Lets say they sign Mike Green. McDavid + Green + Chiarelli could make more of a difference than Boychuk+Leddy+Halak or Ribero+Forsberg+Neal+Laviolette. Though chances are, they will still suck. Hopefully we "edge them out" by doubling them in points. Arizona has basically no chance.
But I guess you've convinced me. The possibility of having a good Russell/Hudler/Wideman-like free agent signing is possible (especially with all the 2nd and 3rd round picks). I am also probably overestimating Edmonton. Change my 48% to 52%. Guess that's why they call you textcritic!