Ever since Oling did his spore reveal, I've been torn between voting Oling or Girly, depending on who I believe and what logic I use. And then Oling switching his vote away from Girly after vehemently defending the strategy of revealing who had the spore and lynching the recipient (including introducing the strategy on Day 1) is really not sitting right with me.
I'm trying to logic it out in my brain as follows:
- I'm basically looking at all of you as either 50% chance town or 50% chance host. I know the actual percentages are not 50/50 because there's only 3 mafia in the game, but, for the purposes of looking at each player individually, it's basically a binary choice that they are either host or town because the spore has not had a chance to impact the game much yet. Except Girly and Oling, I look at them differently...
- if I'm to believe Oling, then both he and Girly have received the spore. So there's a 33% chance Oling is turned, 33% chance he's host, or 33% chance he's town. And Girly is also 33% chance she's turned, 33% chance she's host, and 33% chance she's town. So 66% chance they are "bad" for us, and only 33% chance they are on our side. But if I believe what Girly says about the spore, then she either hasn't received it at all or she received it and she didn't turn. If I believe what Oling said, he received it and he didn't turn. So potentially back to 50% host, 50% town for each of them *if* I believe them about the spore. But if I believe them about the spore then maybe I should trust that they are town?! And then I should vote for neither of them.
Problem is I don't really believe either of them, it's more who do I believe the *least* at this point.
- I really saw a difference in Girly's posting style between Game Day 1 and Game Day 2 when Oling revealed that he sent her the spore. This makes me suspicious.
- I'm suspicious of Oling but nobody else seems to be. So I feel like I'm missing something in the logic of the spore or game strategy. This is frustrating. Not really relevant to my analysis but I am feeling a bit frustrated that I don't "get" whatever you all are seeing.
Essentially the vote should be between Oling and Girly because out of all of us, they seem to have the most likely chance of being "bad" (scum or turned) out of anyone else. I'm having trouble deciding which of them to trust more (or, as Puxlut pointed out, what if they are meta-gaming and we can actually trust neither?!?! *head explodes*).
Ugh. Total thought jumble. I'm think I'm leaning Girly. The Oling play is confusing me (announce strategy, reveal as spore receipient/sender per announced strategy, implement strategy to lynch receipient, change strategy last minute) but it seems like the rest of the group is leaning hard towards Girly. There is no chance of an Oling lynch regardless of my suspicions.
Vote: GirlySports