Originally Posted by Red Menace
Similar to my post in Jankowski thread I did a little analysis on results from the middle of round 1. I looked at picks 11 to 20 only from drafts 2000-2010.
Forwards
68 drafted
Elite - 4 (6%) - Getzlaf, Kopitar, Parise, Tarasenko
Star Top 6 Fwds - 6 (9%, 15% cumulative) - J.Carter, Schwartz, Little, Radulov, Semin, Hemsky
Solid 2nd-3rd liners - 16 (23%, 38% cumulative) - includes Zajac, D.Brown, B.Sutter, Hanzal, Kreider, Bjugstad, Stafford, Tlusty, etc....
The rest (62%) includes lots more solid 3rd-4th liners than outright busts (unlike the 21-30 range), it includes guys like Kobasew(!), Colborne, Fehr, Goc, B.Gordon, Z.Kassian
Defenceman
36 players
Elite - 3 (8%) - E.Karlsson, Shattenkirk, Burns
Top Pairing Stars - 3 (8%, 16% cumulative) - Seabrook, McDonagh, Fowler
Solid 2nd Pairing - 9 (25%, 41% cumulative) - M.Staal, Hamhuis, Leddy, Myers, Orpik, Gardiner, Kulikov, D.Ellis, Del Zotto
The Rest (59%) includes a number of solid pros like Hainsey, Ballard, Sbisa, de Haan, Kindl
Goalies
6 taken
Elite - None
Solid Starters - 2 (33%) - Bernier, Dubnyk (not enough evidence to consider him elite yet)
Rest - (67%) - J.Campbell, Helenius, Pickard and Schwarz show the dangers of drafting goalies too high.
From this sample it is still rather difficult to find a solid, impactful player for your roster (something like 40% will become players on the top half of your roster).
It looks like it is easier to find elite defencemen in this range than it is elite forwards...no doubt because of the prolonged development for that position.
Let's hope the Flames find a winner.
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