Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community - View Single Post - [News] With the 21st overall pick Flames select C Mark Jankowski

Red Menace · 05-28-2015, 08:46 AM

Wondering about the expected returns of players picked in the bottom of the 1st round.
I took drafts 2000 to 2010, looked at forwards only, and players picked from spots 21 to 30.
There were 62 such players.
3 (5%) have become elite players: Giroux, Perry, Pacioretty
6 others (10%, 15% cumulative) have become very solid top 6 Fwds:
Steen, Oshie, Eberle, Kesler, Perron, N.Foligno
14 others (23%, 38% cumulative are solid 2nd-3rd liners (some could still elevate up to highers group)
Backlund, M.Richards, Kuznetsov, M.Johansson, Ennis, J.Williams, Berglund, Palmieri, Cogliano, Boyes, B.Nelson, C.Coyle, R.Sheahan, K.Hayes
The rest (62%) are 4th liners or fringe players...or complete busts (talking about you Robbie Schremp)
S.Ott, B.Boyle, S.Downie, S.Bergenheim, P.Eaves, Ril.Nash, E.Etem, J.Slater are among these guys.
Some have already retired or moved to Europe like Wolski, C.Armstrong, Tikhonov, Bergfors, Perezhogin, Steckel, etc....

So you only have a slightly better than 1 in 3 chance of getting what I would call an impact player (Fwd) to your roster at this point in the draft.

And Flames recent history has bared this out; 1 good (Backlund), 2 duds (Nemsiz and Chucko). Let's hope Jankowski can beat the odds and make it to the show (with the Flames).
Likely only 1 of Janko, Poirier and Klimchuk will make it)

05-28-2015, 08:46 AM	#1421
Red Menace Scoring Winger Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Montreal Exp:	Wondering about the expected returns of players picked in the bottom of the 1st round. I took drafts 2000 to 2010, looked at forwards only, and players picked from spots 21 to 30. There were 62 such players. 3 (5%) have become elite players: Giroux, Perry, Pacioretty 6 others (10%, 15% cumulative) have become very solid top 6 Fwds: Steen, Oshie, Eberle, Kesler, Perron, N.Foligno 14 others (23%, 38% cumulative are solid 2nd-3rd liners (some could still elevate up to highers group) Backlund, M.Richards, Kuznetsov, M.Johansson, Ennis, J.Williams, Berglund, Palmieri, Cogliano, Boyes, B.Nelson, C.Coyle, R.Sheahan, K.Hayes The rest (62%) are 4th liners or fringe players...or complete busts (talking about you Robbie Schremp) S.Ott, B.Boyle, S.Downie, S.Bergenheim, P.Eaves, Ril.Nash, E.Etem, J.Slater are among these guys. Some have already retired or moved to Europe like Wolski, C.Armstrong, Tikhonov, Bergfors, Perezhogin, Steckel, etc.... So you only have a slightly better than 1 in 3 chance of getting what I would call an impact player (Fwd) to your roster at this point in the draft. And Flames recent history has bared this out; 1 good (Backlund), 2 duds (Nemsiz and Chucko). Let's hope Jankowski can beat the odds and make it to the show (with the Flames). Likely only 1 of Janko, Poirier and Klimchuk will make it) Last edited by Red Menace; 05-28-2015 at 08:49 AM.