Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
Unless girly is the agent that wouldn't occur tonight.
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But we could lose the agent tonight if Girly passes the spore to them. As I said before, Maz said that the Agents investigation/kill will not prevent the spore from being passed. Girly will pick someone to send the spore to, is investigated and killed, the spore is then passed to the person she picked.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
You guys are assuming that girly is 100% turned. We need to price that risk in. As a general strategy lynching whoever gets the spore is a bad idea.
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I am almost 100% sure she is turned or a host. Her reaction to Oling revealing he passed the spore to her was not town. You would think in that situation someone would right away say they weren't turned, instead she panics and starts trying to point the question back onto Oling by asking me why the Agent should investigate her before Oling.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
Assuming Girly is turned 100%
Lynch Girly turned
Day 3 15 alive, oling is either host or currently town.
Day 4 14 alive, spore with high value target 50/50
Lynch Girly town
Day 3 15 alive, oling is either host or currently town.
Day 4 14 alive, spore with high value target
Day 5 possible info
Lynch other girly turned
Day 3 14 alive 3/15 chance of lynched scum, 11/28 chance of high value target being turned.
Lynch other girly not turned
Day 3 15 alive, spore at lvt, next investigation set.
So if girly is turned lynching her adds one day to the game, no extra lynch opportunities. Instead of us lynching other on day 2 and the agent killing at night and the spore going to a high value target and then day 3 starts we lynch girly on day 2, spore does nothing night 2, day 3 we lynch random and night 3 an high value target gets the spore.
The number of lynches and where the spore is is identical except girly could send to the host accidently giving us an atvantage or girly might not be turned. The benefit of lynching girly would be confirming oling isn't turned which is pretty low prob.
Can someone else make any sense of what I just said?
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The only benefit of lynching Girly today is that we get 1 night of our 2 power roles not being in jeopardy of being turned, that's it. If we lynch her the agent can investigate Oling and confirm he isn't turned. The spore is in limbo for 1 night and we can do some analysis on voting patterns tomorrow.
If you are fine with the risk of Girly passing the spore to the Agent tonight then there is no benefit to lynch her today.