Quote:
Originally Posted by InCoGnEtO
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Some things the spreadsheet doesn't take into account:
1.) Mark Giordano is going to be paid
Judging by what CP thinks, he'll be getting a raise of $3M to somewhere around 7-7.5M AAV. Potentially even higher.
+$3M in cap for 2016-17.
2.) Johnny and Mony
They'll be getting the biggest raises. Sure, you can bridge them but it'll put you in an even worse cap hell later. And we already consider them part of the core moving forward, so I would be expecting like $5-6M AAV each... a massive hike up from their ELC's.
+$10-12M in cap for 2016-17.
3.) Jiri Hudler will probably stay
I think the Flames have recognized the stellar job he's done mentoring our two prize rookies, and will continue to do that as long as he can score at a competent pace. I see Hudler staying in Calgary... probably not retiring here, but at least another few years at a similar cap hit.
+$4M in cap for 2016-17.
4.) Kris Russell might too
Russell is worth every bit of his $2.6M contract right now especially after he stepped up so well in the absence of Giordano. So when his current contract ends he'll probably want a respectable raise as well. It won't be a ridiculous amount, and since he's from Caroline he might even give us a hometown discount.
+$4M in cap for 2016-17.
5.) Goalie Situation after 2015-16
As you pointed out, we will have Ortio and probably one other goalie, likely from free agency or trade. I don't think Gillies will be ready for the NHL until like 1 pro season.
Ortio will be likely ready to be our starter in 2016-17. So he'll get a raise to probably like $2-3M AAV. Our UFA/trade backup is harder to predict, but we'll just say $2M for now.
+$4M in cap for 2016-17.
6.) RFA's that will be staying
I noticed you listed some players that you expect to be gone/traded. So I'll assume that the other RFAs on your list that haven't been mentioned already will stay and likely get raises.
Granlund - Probably minor raise, from 767K to probably 900K. Negligible.
Colborne - Raise by $1M (unless he really sucks next year)
Wotherspoon - Raise by $1M
7.) Smid's situation
Between retiring and not getting paid vs LTIR and getting paid.... I think it's safe to assume he's not *officially* retiring - which means he'll be paid what his contract says. I think the Flames will put him on LTIR so the cap isn't an issue during the season. However, IIRC he would still count towards the year-end cap, LTIR or not.
+$3.5M in cap for 2016-17.
Adding it up, that's already around
$30M of cap the Flames will be looking to add in 2016-17. If we sign free agents to replace Jones and Bollig, then we'll be edging dangerously close to the cap limit that year.