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Old 05-21-2015, 09:41 PM   #85
GirlySports
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Yes Puxlut, that's correct.

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I'm not sure killing the spore-carrier is an advantage for us because the spore would return to the captain who would then kill one of the turned to get the spore faster or wait a day. Either way the spore will go one of the passengers next.

Let'sset some scenarios. One of the 14 passengers currently has the spore right now (spore-holder). If he's been turned he knows he has it, otherwise he won't know til tonight.

Scenario 1) He's been turned.
a) his winning condition will have changed to win with the hosts
b) he will try not to get lynched, we lynch someone 3/17 it's one of the hosts
c) if we lynch sporeholder (1/17) it's a passenger and spore goes back to captain to use on night 2 (nobody has spore on day 2)
d) if spore-holder is not lynched, he passes the spore on on Night 1, 3/16 chance it lands on the host next, 13/16 on a passenger
e) if he tells us on Day 2 who he gave the spore to (target), he will be safe and we lynch the target. If the target is one of the hosts, great! If not, we lynch another passenger which gives us 3 hosts + 1 turned + 11 passengers.
f) then the captain may lynch the turned to get the spore back. then it's 3 hosts against 11 passengers and he gets to infect someone right away.

This is not good at all, way too risky and we could be in for a short game.

Scenario 2) He's has not been turned.
a) He doesn't know he has the spore so he acts normal until tonight.
b) We lynch someone 3/17 chance it's one of the hosts, 1/17 it's spore-holder
c) He will give the spore to target and on Day 2 tell us who target is.
d) We lynch target, chance that target is host 3/15, passenger 12/15, spore returns to captain, captain has no turned to kill so won't get spore until Night 3.

This scenario is not bad because no one will be turned on Day 2 but still some gamble because we may lynch one of the role players who the spore did not affect anyways.

I don't like killing (target) because the spore keeps returning to the captain which guarantees that he will give it to a passenger next. I think it's better to randomly keep passing the spore around. The spore-holder right now (even if already turned) doesn't know who the hosts are. We want the spore tonight to be passed to one of the 3 hosts, the person hidden by the smuggler, the genetic anomaly guy or even the government agent (two flips). The more Days that the spore lands on people that can't be infected the more numbers we hwill ave. Because the more people that are turned makes our winning condition harder and they can talk and not give the spore to each other.
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