Quote:
Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen
I agree with bizaro86 about 1) if the person was turned he's probably not going to be telling us who he is.
Yeah, but then we are also killing a 100% passenger.
If we were to grant the current spore carrier immunity, they could reveal themselves tell us who they were selecting on Night 1 to carry the spore, on Day 2 we kill that person (ridding ourselves of the spore for Night 2) and we have a decent idea that the target was picked by a passenger.
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Good point that we'd be killing a 100% passenger, I hadn't thought of that. Obviously the host wouldn't pick scum for their first spore target.
However, realistically on day one we only have a 3/18 = 16.6% chance of hitting scum, while if the spore continues it has a nearly 50% chance of infecting one of us.
I did some math. (Assuming the spore didn't work, if it did we're not hearing from anyone and we should guess or pick someone inactive or something).
If we kill the spore holder we're guaranteed to go into tomorrow with 3/17 scum, since we'll kill one passenger and no new infections. 17.6% of players will be scum
If we don't kill the spore holder there are two possibilities, either we get lucky and get a scum or we don't. In each case the scum have about a 50% chance of converting someone.
Get scum: 3/18 chance of happening times 2.5/17 scum remaining (we kill one plus they get a 50% chance of getting someone new)
Don't get scum: 15/18 chance of happening times 3.5/17 scum remaining (we kill one passenger plus they get a 50% chance of getting someone new).
Weighted average scum remaining = (3/18)*(2.5/17)+(15/18)*(3.5/17) = 19.6% of players remaining will be scum
So killing the spore holder on day one works out statistically better than not doing it, although it is close.
I can see why the spore holder may not want to embrace this plan, as its more fun to keep playing, but I think it's better for the passengers if they come forward. It has less huge upside (if we guess right on the first day we probably have the game in the bag, similar to the NHL one) but is statistically the right play.