Quote:
Originally Posted by Day Tripper
1) Shouldn't 2010 and 2011 be 48.2%?
2) What you found is the Oilers' odds of drafting 1st in 2010, 1st in 2011, 1st in 2012, not 1st in 2013, not 1st in 2014, and 1st in 2015. To find the odds that they win it at least 4 times in the last 6 years, you have to add the probabilities of each combination of four 1st overalls, all the combinations of five 1st overalls, and the probability of six straight 1st overalls. It should be 2.00%, I think.
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48.2%, right.
I was calculating the odds of actually winning all 4 times that they won, which - using 48.2% - was actually 0.5%, not 0.67% as I posted above.
But I didn't factor in that they also had 2 other cracks at it in 2013 and 2014. Factoring that in, and working off the decision tree of: they already won 3 times, which had a 4.4% chance of happening, what is the chances of them getting a 4th #1?
4.4% x (4.7% + 14.2% + 11.5%) = 1.33%
Your 2% is calculating the chances of them winning
any 4 (or more) times. Which is the right way to look at it.