Ok, listen, I've had long sprawling write-ups most of the season, but I'm going to do very little analysis of numbers in this series. The numbers are so close between these two teams that it's essentially a wash:
GF/G: Calgary-2.89 (7th); Vancouver-2.88 (8th)
GA/G: Calgary-2.60 (17th); Vancouver-2.68 (19th)
PP%: Calgary-18.8% (13th); Vancouver-19.3% (9th)
Power Play Opportunities: Calgary-255 (11th); Vancouver-238 (22nd)
PK%: Calgary-80.6% (20th); Vancouver-85.7% (2nd)
Times Shorthanded: Calgary-186 (30th); Vancouver-266 (10th)
5 on 5 ratio: Calgary-1.04 (16th); Vancouver-0.96 (22nd)
Team Save%: Calgary-.911 (15th); Vancouver-.910 (17th)
Team Shooting%: Calgary-10.5 (2nd); Vancouver-9.6 (7th)
The big stats are nearly a wash, and the smaller stats tell a little different story. Calgary's PK isn't nearly as good as Vancouver's, but that obviously just comes down to getting less practice. The Flames drew 20 more penalties over the course of a season, which doesn't mean much since it's about 1/4 of an extra penalty/game. BUT, when you see that Calgary was on the PP 69 more times than they were killing a penalty, that means they will have a good chance of having one more PP than Vancouver every single game over this series, which works when you consider that Vancouver was shorthanded 28 more times than they were on the power play. I know that with roughly 1 in 5 chance on those extra PP chances, it will only mean one extra goal in the series, but that could be the difference maker. Looking at the 5 on 5 ratio differences, they match up nearly perfectly. The Flames will likely score 1 or 2 more goals at even strength over the course of the series, and that could be enough to give them the edge.
I honestly think this one will go 7 games unless one team completely craps the bed. The Flames have an edge in youth, speed, exuberance, and a belief in themselves that can't be replaced. I think only the Senators and Blue Jackets had better positive energy around them down the stretch. The Canucks have a LOT of experience, especially in the playoffs, which could help them to stay calmer in big moments and make fewer costly errors. I could analyze these two teams, each line, individual players etc., until I'm blue in the face, but at this point it comes down to how well your big players play, and how healthy you can stay. It's going to be a tight series, so just enjoy the ride, however it plays out.
Roster Notes: All of Lance Bouma, Paul Byron, Raphael Diaz, and Karri Ramo are listed as day-to-day. That being said, I wouldn't be shocked to see Ramo and Byron in the lineup tonight as they were both skating quite a bit yesterday and Ortio was practicing earlier than the main group. Giordano is making steady progress and is out of a sling, but don't expect to see him in this series. Not only will Ladislav Smid not play in this series, but his career is in jeopardy with a serious neck injury. Sam Bennett was taking a regular shift ahead of Mason Raymond, so it's highly possible that he plays tonight in his spot. The Canucks have Brad Richardson, Zack Kassian, and Shawn Matthias all listed as day-to-day, but both Matthias and Richardson had a full practice and are likely to go tonight. Ryan Miller is still recovering from his knee injury, which is very difficult for a butterfly goaltender, so he'll be backing up Lack to start the series. It's pretty much a given that Hiller is the starter for the Flames. All the lines are just best guesses, so we probably won't know for sure until game time as Hartley is keeping everything close to his chest in terms of roster decisions.
Flames
Gaudreau-Monahan-Hudler
Bennett-Backlund-Colborne
Ferland-Stajan-Jones
Bollig-Granlund-Jooris
Russell-Wideman
Brodie-Engelland
Schlemko-Potter
Hiller
Canucks
D. Sedin-H. Sedin-Burrows
Higgins-Bonino-Vrbata
Matthias-Richardson-Dorsett
Kenins-Horvat-Hansen
Edler-Tanev
Hamhuis-Weber
Bieksa-Sbisa
Lack
Go Flames Go!!!!!!!!!!!!!