Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
Well you would need to check whether year over year 4 on 4 performance is similar year over year for teams. If it is then it isn't just bad luck. The article above suggests it is.
As far as outliers go the kings are a boring one easily explained by bad luck in one goal games and shoot outs. As sad as it may be there is no evidence that clutch scoring exists, momentum, etc exist. We are just watching a coin flip 10 times and getting excited at it coming up heads 10 times in a row. When a team scores a goal is random the rate at which teams score is not.
The flames are an interesting outlier though. The reason for the flames success is our shooting percentage is high. And the skill vs luck question here is quite interesting.
|
Again, I have no problem classifying SOs as luck. As long as one understands that 'luck' includes having a good season (like Tanguay did that one year with the Flames). It isn't something you would expect to replicate next year.
But to casually dismiss one-goal games with the same sweep is a HUGE mistake IMO.
Losing (or winning) the vast majority of your one-goal games is not random. It is earned. It is the reason the games are played. And LOTS goes into it - from PPs to PK, to goaltending, to matchups. And yes, it includes clutch scoring and a poorly times post or two.
If we are going to call one-goal games random, and dismiss PPs and 4 on 4 play, why don't we simply save ourselves a lot of time and simply flip a coin to see who wins? Or maybe vote for the nicest uniforms.