Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike F
Thanks for your response (and those above), but all this does is now clarify my question to: is a monte carlo analysis reliable for predicting sports outcomes, where the outcome of a given event (i.e. one game between two teams) is not random, but influenced by things like relative team strength, home ice advantage, recent schedule, etc.
|
The way I understand it is its not really predicting the outcomes, it is giving the chances of making the playoffs based on the amount of possible outcomes I believe. So since there isnt very many possible outcomes anymore with four remaining games, it will swing a lot