Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike F
The only thing that "bothers" me is not knowing whether the % they give is reliable or not. People have started throwing their odds around a lot, and I simply want to know how much that number can actually be relied on.
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The odds are actually MORE reliable now.
Early in the season, there are too many possible scenarios for the monte carlo to run them all. What it does is run a bunch (millions) and those are 'representative' of the complete set.
Now however, there are only so many scenarios because there are only so many games. So the odds actually state exactly how many of the possible outcomes result in the Flames making the playoffs.
If it says 80%, then literally in 80% of all the possible ways the games can play out, the Flames make the playoffs.