Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike F
Has anyone seen any retrospective analysis determining whether the odds this site gives actually turn out to be accurate?
The way they fluctuate based on single results, my gut tells me they're somewhere between unreliable and (mathematically) baseless
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Let's assume the team, and two others have a 66% chance of playoffs.
That means all three tams have an equal chance at two spots.
Now let's assume two teams win and one loses with only five games left.
Two of those teams are going to have a greater-than-two-in-three chance and the last has a less than two-in-three chance. The amount is affected by scheduling etc which is reasonable.
Sounds pretty effective to me, but st the end of the day probability in sports has never gaurunteed anything - that's why sports are fun in the first place.