Quote:
Originally Posted by JiriHrdina
Why? What are you trying to solve?
|
The crap-shoot of the rebuild. At most only the top 4-6 player in the 18 year old draft are 90% bets going to be able to help a team at the NHL level.
This year if the Flames do not make the playoffs they have about a 50% chance of picking a NHL player that would be ready in 3 years. That is not good enough for a rebuild
Take the 2008 draft.... enough time that there should be no late developers:
The top 10 were good enough to be solid NHLers in time. 9 out the next 20 18 year olds drafted will never make it to 100 nhl games.
In 1978 the last year of the 20 year old draft
Picks 11-30
2 guys out of 20 played less than 190 NHL games .... the average for these player was a 648 NHL game career
18 out of the 20 played 40 games in the NHL the season that they were drafted. The Islanders had to wait 2 years for #25 overall Tomas Jonsson to come over from Sweden to start his 556 game NHL career.
All of the top 10 picks were Star Quality NHLers with #10 pick Tom McCarthy jumping straight from Oshawa to Minnesota and scoring 16 goals in his NHL rookie season. He topped out at 39 goals in his best season and had the shortest NHL career of the top 10 at 460 games. He was the worst of the top 10 picks by a considerable margin.
Compare that with Baertschi being picked 13th in 2011.
Were the scouts that much better?