Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community - View Single Post - Article: How the Calgary Flames are Laughing at Advanced Stats

Loyal and True · 03-27-2015, 12:24 AM

I know the article makes reference to 10/11 Stars, 11/12 Wild, and 13/14 Leafs and Avs, but I don't think any of those teams are an adequate comparison to this team. Bad possession numbers, granted, but still very different in my opinion.

14/15 Flames
+22 Goal differential
SF/GP 27.6 (28th)
SA/GP 28.9 (9th)
G/GP 2.88 (6th)
GA/GP 2.60 (16th)

Special Teams
PK Shots Against 225 (1st)
PP Shots For 344 (15th)
+119 shot diff (344-225) average +1.61 PP shots/game
+117 minutes PP over PK

This is huge for the Flames. They may give up ground in 5 on 5 possession, but they compensate with high quality shot differential on special teams.

Leading Scorers
F - Hudler 66 pts (projected 73)
F - Gaudreau 58 pts (projected 64)
F - Monahan 56 pts (projected 62)
D - Giordano 48 pts in 61 GP
D - Wideman 47 pts (projected 52)
D - Brodie 40 pts (projected 44)
F - Bouma 31 pts (projected 34)
D - Russell 30 pts (projected 33)
F - Jones 28 pts in 60 GP (projected 32)
F - Backlund 25 pts in 44GP (projected 30)

Look at those numbers for top 4 D-men. Unbelievable. Obviously they are jumping into the play to compensate for the young, developing forward group. If your forward lines can't consistently overpower your opponent in the neutral zone/offensive zone, you can create odd-man opportunities with D-men jumping into the play.

The special teams and contributions from defenceman help turn the tables on a 5-on-5 possession battle.

Other teams

Minnesota, Colorado and Toronto were all brutal at giving up shots on goal. Pretty much bottom of the league. Calgary is nowhere near as bad as those teams defensively. In no way are they apples-to-apples comparables. Eventually, all those shots on goal turn into goals against and they lose a bunch of games.

Dallas is a bit more comparable, but still very different. Dallas started hot but ended 9th in the West standings and -6 goal differential. They still gave up 30.5 shots per game (14th). Their leading scorers were:
Richards (upcoming UFA) 77 pts
Eriksson 73 pts
Ribeiro 71 pts
Morrow 56 pts
Benn 56 pts
Ott 32 pts
Neal 39 pts (traded to Pit for Goligoski in Feb).

On defence they had
Robidas 30 pts
Daley 27 pts
Goligoski 15 pts in 23 GP

Lehtonen 2.55 GAA and .914 SV%

Dallas had a very good top line Richards/Ribeiro but a pretty old group. Defense was nowhere near the Flames top 4 in scoring.

Dallas had a modest special teams advantage due to lots of powerplays, but not as disciplined as the Flames. +47 mins PP time for the year, +50 PP shots (0.61/game)

Overall, Dallas had very little to compensate for the poor possession numbers. Unlike the Flames.

03-27-2015, 12:24 AM	#134
Loyal and True Powerplay Quarterback Join Date: Dec 2010 Exp:	I know the article makes reference to 10/11 Stars, 11/12 Wild, and 13/14 Leafs and Avs, but I don't think any of those teams are an adequate comparison to this team. Bad possession numbers, granted, but still very different in my opinion. 14/15 Flames +22 Goal differential SF/GP 27.6 (28th) SA/GP 28.9 (9th) G/GP 2.88 (6th) GA/GP 2.60 (16th) Special Teams PK Shots Against 225 (1st) PP Shots For 344 (15th) +119 shot diff (344-225) average +1.61 PP shots/game +117 minutes PP over PK This is huge for the Flames. They may give up ground in 5 on 5 possession, but they compensate with high quality shot differential on special teams. Leading Scorers F - Hudler 66 pts (projected 73) F - Gaudreau 58 pts (projected 64) F - Monahan 56 pts (projected 62) D - Giordano 48 pts in 61 GP D - Wideman 47 pts (projected 52) D - Brodie 40 pts (projected 44) F - Bouma 31 pts (projected 34) D - Russell 30 pts (projected 33) F - Jones 28 pts in 60 GP (projected 32) F - Backlund 25 pts in 44GP (projected 30) Look at those numbers for top 4 D-men. Unbelievable. Obviously they are jumping into the play to compensate for the young, developing forward group. If your forward lines can't consistently overpower your opponent in the neutral zone/offensive zone, you can create odd-man opportunities with D-men jumping into the play. The special teams and contributions from defenceman help turn the tables on a 5-on-5 possession battle. Other teams Minnesota, Colorado and Toronto were all brutal at giving up shots on goal. Pretty much bottom of the league. Calgary is nowhere near as bad as those teams defensively. In no way are they apples-to-apples comparables. Eventually, all those shots on goal turn into goals against and they lose a bunch of games. Dallas is a bit more comparable, but still very different. Dallas started hot but ended 9th in the West standings and -6 goal differential. They still gave up 30.5 shots per game (14th). Their leading scorers were: Richards (upcoming UFA) 77 pts Eriksson 73 pts Ribeiro 71 pts Morrow 56 pts Benn 56 pts Ott 32 pts Neal 39 pts (traded to Pit for Goligoski in Feb). On defence they had Robidas 30 pts Daley 27 pts Goligoski 15 pts in 23 GP Lehtonen 2.55 GAA and .914 SV% Dallas had a very good top line Richards/Ribeiro but a pretty old group. Defense was nowhere near the Flames top 4 in scoring. Dallas had a modest special teams advantage due to lots of powerplays, but not as disciplined as the Flames. +47 mins PP time for the year, +50 PP shots (0.61/game) Overall, Dallas had very little to compensate for the poor possession numbers. Unlike the Flames. Last edited by Loyal and True; 03-27-2015 at 12:29 AM.