Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
As for Corsi predicting approximately 70% of the playoff teams... in sports, in any given year, predicting 70% of the playoff teams is an absolute slam dunk, and should be considered the very basest of baselines.
Show me a model or metric that can predict to harder 30%, and then I will be impressed.
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I bet i can predict 11/16 (70%) of the playoff teams each year. On average, at least 70% of teams that made the playoffs last year will again the next year. Playoff teams will be reflected by goal differential around 90% of the time.
Burke still said it best, 'supportive but not illuminating'. Every team looks for an edge. Some of that edge will come from statistical analysis, but any advantage sure won't come from score adjusted corsi close. The Oilers grabbed the free agent corsi darlings last summer, and we know how that has turned out.