Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
As for Corsi predicting approximately 70% of the playoff teams... in sports, in any given year, predicting 70% of the playoff teams is an absolute slam dunk, and should be considered the very basest of baselines.
Show me a model or metric that can predict to harder 30%, and then I will be impressed.
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Well put.
There are some really interesting insights from stats. There is nothing more predictive about them than any other insight though.
Home ice advantage is well established.
Yet a good team with a strong road record is just a good team. Home ice be damned.
A bad team with a strong road record though is a story. Why are they road warriors? Is their home or road record the real them? Good conversations.
Nobody goes full weenie and suggests a good road record is unsustainable, based on unassailable math. They take it for what it is, an insight worth a conversation.