Quote:
Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen
Sportsclubstats is giving them a 1% chance, which is not quite the same as finding one scenario in millions of runs. Which is fine and dandy but that 1% chance takes into account of their entire season, over the last 10 games they are 8-2-0. A pace like that over the next 7-1-1 or so, would put them in at least a decent chance to claim a playoff spot.
They don't need to beat all 3 teams, only Winnipeg and one of Los Angeles or Calgary. If they beat Winnipeg and Los Angeles, for example, but are below Calgary, Calgary gets third in the Pacific and Dallas would claim the Wildcard spot. So what they really need is a Winnipeg collapse, a strong record and probably to beat Calgary in their 2 games they have left. It's unlikely, but it's not impossible.
Like I said, for all intents and purposes their season is done, the chances of them making the playoffs are low. I disagree with you in saying that they know it's done. They will know it's done if they lose tonight. Until then, they're taking it one game at a time and praying.
|
I totally misinterpreted that sportsclubstats data. Out of 5.2B sims, 57M had the Stars in the playoffs. That's where they get their 1%. Here is the combination of records with the associated count of scenarios where they make the playoffs. For example, if they go 5-3-1, they made the playoffs 170k times out of 5.1B simulations according to the model and they have a .003% chance of making it with that record.
Anyways yeah, there's like a 1 in 100 chance.