^Yes. Also, for example, to me the math should work like it did at spirtsclubstats.
The Kings have a much lower chance of making the playoffs there, so with their win, their odds increased more than the Flames did (who have a much higher probability there).
That math seems correct to me. That math at hockeystats doesn't, just for those reasons.
So if the model doesn't reflect what has occurred, it seems questionable.
Anyway... I don't want to beat this any more. It's a math/stats question, not a hockey/corsi methodology question.
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