View Single Post
Old 03-23-2015, 03:17 PM   #1312
CorsiHockeyLeague
Franchise Player
 
CorsiHockeyLeague's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Exp:
Default

^Did you miss the part where the chart does not take into account other things that you'd want to correct for if you were setting odds on a bet?
Quote:
Originally Posted by bizaro86 View Post
You should take bets where the odds are in your favour, even if they are uncertain. It's like corsi's signature, I would take that bet (45% on a coin flip) even if you only offered it to me once. There are a number of theories on how much to bet in circumstances like that, the most famous is the kelly criterion.
Yeah, and I'd probably take the "will the Kings make it" bet if you offered it to me at even odds in person and the stakes were within my risk tolerance. But I wouldn't be shocked to lose or anything.

The only bet I've made recently was on the SCF last year and it was a free roll (Lundqvist for Conn Smythe hedged by Kings to win).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Buster View Post
"Large error bars"....translation: "the data irrelevant".
This is just completely and utterly... wrong.
__________________
"The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
CorsiHockeyLeague is offline   Reply With Quote