Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
he said he personally thinks the chances are 50/50
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I said the model is accurate based on what history it measures. It's accuracy has been tested to be more predictive than simple win/loss records through out at least most of the season. So it's objectively accurate within its parameters.
Sportsclubstats uses strict home/loss records in a "Monte Carlo" method by running millions of simulations which at this point may be just effective, more, or less, we don't know.
Regardless of what happens from here on out, the case of one team's fortunes aren't going to prove anything. I do believe there are distinct exceptions to the power of possession merics in making the playoffs (being in the top 16 of 30 teams). I believe shot/passing lane blocking and accurate shooting can get a bad possession team to the middle of the pack, but not elite. We know goaltending can do that, but the skill of good goaltending appears to be streaky and only a few goalies can do it reliably enough to overcome bad possession. I don't have the data to back that up except an n of 1, so I'm not going to pretend to be smarter than the guys making the predictive chart.
I hope that clarifies my stance