Flames: 39-27-6, 84 points, 3rd in the Pacific, 8th in the West, 15th in NHL.
Avalanche: 33-26-12, 78 points, 6th in the Central, 10th in the West, 20th in NHL.
This game could be the nail in the coffin in the Avs lackluster season. OR...it could be the game that lets them back in the playoff picture. Is it likely to think they, or either of the Sharks and Stars, could feasibly make the playoffs with just 10 games remaining? According to sportsclubstats, the Avs would have to go 10-0-1 for 99 points just to have a 90% chance at making the playoffs, and right now their chances are just 3.2%. The Sharks would need to run the table in their last 10 just to hit 98 points and have a 97% chance at playoffs. The Stars have just a 82.5% chance if they run the table in their remaining 10 games. What this means is that a Flames regulation win tonight would only give themselves a +6% chance of making the playoffs, pushing them to 81%, but it would kill the Avs chances, dropping them to just a 1% chance. That would leave the final 9 games to decide between the Flames, Kings, Jets, and maybe the Wild and Canucks if they struggle. It still looks more and more like those last 2 games of the year against the Kings and Jets will be games of great significance. It's time for the Flames to show some killer instinct and essentially eliminate the Avs tonight.
It's a team that has given the Flames fits over the last few years, with a 3-5-1 record since 2012. The Flames have struggled to contain their attack for a while now. In their last 10 games, they have only held the Avs to less than 3 goals once. Surprisingly, the Flames have scored plenty of goals, averaging 3.00 GF/G in those 10 games. What it comes down to tonight is shutting them down when it matters. At this time of the year the record means nothing. Throw all the stats out the window. Playing for pride has traditionally made bad teams look much better. Just take the last game against CBJ where the Flames were matched in their work ethic, but probably deserved a better fate. Good teams are losing more too. Just look at Islanders, Red Wings, and Predators records of late. It doesn't matter what you did in the past...today's is the only game that matters now.
Points are at a premium the rest of the way. 10 games is still 20 points up for grabs for the Flames, and they need to get as many as they can down the stretch. I think the simple fact they are still in the race without their Norris-calibre season from Giordano is impressive. However, they need to pick up the play, and that might be a lot to ask considering the high level they've been playing at all year long. Who knows how much is left in the tank. There have been moments the Flames looked gassed in the last week or two, and Hartley has had way more optional practices of late to try and compensate for that. They've given their all this season, and that's all you could ask for of any team, but if they make the playoffs their efforts would really be worth it.
I'm legitimately starting to get playoff fever. There's still a ways to go, but I can taste it, as I'm sure the players can too. There was a poll within the first few games of the year asking if this was a playoff team. I don't remember the exact numbers, but I think it was around 5% of CP that legitimately viewed them as a playoff team, and I was one of those 5%. Not saying it to brag, but it does feel good to be vindicated.
Roster Notes: Lots of maintenance days for the Flames' top players. Byron was held off the ice yesterday, so it's still unlikely that he makes it into tonight's game. Shore and Jooris both skated, but no indication on whether they will play or not. Ramo is the confirmed starter. For the Avs, Jesse Winchester might return tonight for his first game since a concussion knocked him out of the lineup in a preseason game against these very same Flames. You'd think he would want some retribution for missing an entire year. Joey Hishon is close to returning from an elbow injury that held him out of the lineup almost exclusively because it hampered his ability to take face-offs.
Flames
Gaudreau-Monahan-Hudler
Bouma-Backlund-Jones
Raymond-Granlund-Colborne
Bollig-Stajan-Ferland
Russell-Wideman
Brodie-Engelland
Schlemko-Diaz
Ramo
Avalanche
Mitchell-Duchene-Iginla
Landeskog-O'Reilly-Tanguay
McLeod-Cliche-Everberg
Caron-Hamilton-Briere
Guenin-Barrie
Hejda-Redmond
Stuart-Holden
Varlamov
Go Flames Go!!!
p.s. saying this is a "must-win game" is a bannable offense going forward. It's obvious...we get it.