I don't think drafting defensemen is a crapshoot. There are teams that obviously draft and develop defensemen better than others (e.g. Nashville, Ottawa, San Jose, Pittsburgh). And then there are drafts that were deep in defensemen like the 2008 draft where the odds were you were better off drafting defensemen.
We see teams drafting forwards and I think partly it is because they tend to be ready to contribute earlier and there are more spots for a forward (most teams don't the good old top 6 bottom 6 thing anymore). I think it is easier to win without an elite defenseman than to win without an elite forward it is easier to draft that top pairing defensemen after the first round than top line forwards. But a lot of it has to do with the draft itself.
As mentioned, 2008 was seen as the possibly the best draft for defensemen ever and we saw that picks were 2-5 were defensemen. Those defensemen were considered sure things and projected top pairing defensemen. In 2012, there were 4-5 defensemen who were ranked very close to each other and considered sure things. Up front there was Yakupov, Forsberg, Galchenyuk as the top 3 forwards with Grigorenko (Russian factor) and Teravainen (size) being the other forwards who had star potential. Consequently, we saw a lot of defensemen drafted in the Top 10. In 2014, there was Ekblad then Fleury as the clearcut two best defensemen and everybody else was considered a step down. Consequently, we saw a lot of forwards drafted in the first round.
But as we have seen, top 4 defensemen cost a lot to acquire and UFA defensemen cost a lot money. There are a lot more deals to be had with UFA forwards than UFA defensemen IMO. You only need to look at how much it cost us to acquire Wideman as opposed to Hudler.
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