Flames: 38-27-5, 81 points, 4th in the Pacific, 9th in the West, 17th in NHL.
Flyers: 29-28-15, 73 points, 5th in the Metropolitan, 11th in the East, 23rd in NHL.
It's crazy what 2 losses in a row will do to you at this time of year. Not long ago, the Flames were 2nd in the division and looking like a very strong playoff candidate. At this point, they're going to have to battle like crazy to get in. I know they're only 1 point out of both the last wild card spot as well as 3rd in the division, but they're still on the outside looking in. The good news is that the Kings and Jets have some of the toughest schedules of any team coming up in the next few weeks. It's becoming doubtful that the Flames will overtake either of the Canucks or Wild at this point with 12 games left, 3 and 4 points back respectively, and both teams playing fairly well. The Flames would likely have to nearly run the table and have those teams play around .500 to even have a chance of moving ahead of either one. So it will likely come down to 2 of the 3 of Kings, Jets, and Flames making the playoffs. It should make the last 2 games of the year against the Kings and Jets incredibly exciting. I would recommend getting some nitrous/aspirin tablets now for any angina/heart attacks that will almost definitely occur.
Tonight, the Flames face the Flyers, a team that had a nice run in the middle of the year, but are now falling back from the playoff picture as they have gone a little cold while both the Bruins and Senators have gone red hot (much to my dismay as a Panthers fan). It's hard to fathom how a team can have 2 top scorers in Voracek and Giroux (ranked 5th and 14th in NHL scoring), yet still have the 21st ranked offense in the league. The Flyers have just 5 players with double digit goals, compared to the Flames having 10 (although to be fair, the Flyers have 4 players stuck on 9 goals). This low offensive output is somehow despite having the 3rd ranked power play in the entire NHL. Also puzzling, is how Steve Mason can have the 7th ranked Sv% (.925) and 13th ranked GAA (2.27), yet the Flyers are still the 21st ranked defensive team at 2.74 GA/G. Having the 29th ranked PK doesn't help either (77%). How many of you are surprised at Mason's numbers? I know I was. Yeah, he gives up a bad goal now and then, but who doesn't? The Flyers play an aggressive attack game, but that leads to a lot of defensive lapses and opportunities given up. This bodes well for a Flames squad trying to find their offense after being stymied by the Blues the other night.
The Flames still have the 8th ranked offense in the league at 2.87 GF/G, and the GA/G is still 15th at 2.61, but their 5 on 5 ratio has dropped down to 17th at 1.02. This falling stat is due in part to the fact that the Flames special teams have been so much better of late. The power play is back up to 18.8% ranked 12th, and the penalty kill that was hovering around 76% for the first half of the year and ranked in the bottom 5 is now up to 80.1%, while still ranked 23rd. That doesn't seem like a big push, but considering how few penalties the Flames take, that PK% has been regularly over 90% in the past couple of months. I'll take that trend any time. I have a feeling that the drop in 5 on 5 play is partly due to the increase in the level of play league-wide as teams make a playoff push. The style of play has been more and more "playoff-like" in the last few weeks, and officials are calling less and less. This benefits teams like L.A. and Winnipeg, but is a challenge for smaller skilled teams like Calgary, and we've seen that when the Flames play teams like the Avalanche. That game was a prime example of how officiating changes as playoffs near. What would have been an obvious penalty in November, the officials are now reluctant to call for fear of determining a game that both teams have so much stake in. I would rather have consistent officiating, but it is what it is, and the Flames will have to fight through the tighter checking at even strength to get their goals. Bodies to the front of the net and players like Bouma, Jones, Colborne, Monahan, and Ferland have to drive the puck to the net. That's how you score 5 on 5 from here on in.
Playoff Update: The loss and OOT from Tuesday night hurt. Before that night the Flames were sitting around 84% chance to make the playoffs. After everything went wrong their chances are now 73% heading into tonight's game. Every win and loss will have a significant impact on their odds for the rest of the way. A win tonight is +5.8%, but a loss is a scary -12.1% to their chances of making the playoffs. While the OOT is still important, there aren't any big swings with the outcomes of those games. St. Louis beating Winnipeg is +3.3%, Washington beating Minnesota is +1.0%, and Columbus beating Vancouver is also +1.0%. Wins by those teams aren't nearly as bad as it would be -2.8%, -0.7%, and -0.4% respectively. I think we are nearly at the point of ruling San Jose out of the playoff picture, as a win from them is only -0.7% to our playoff chances.
Roster Notes: No updates other than the Flames recalled Markus Granlund from Adirondack yesterday. The Flyers are missing R.J. Umberger (hip), Matt Read (paternity), and Mike Del Zotto (upper body) all in the last few days, although Del Zotto has declared himself ready to return. Whether he actually plays or not is debatable.
Flames
Gaudreau-Monahan-Hudler
Bouma-Backlund-Jones
Raymond-Jooris-Colborne
Bollig-Stajan-Ferland
Russell-Wideman
Brodie-Engelland
Schlemko-Diaz
Ramo?
Flyers
Raffl-Giroux-Voracek
Schenn-Couturier-Simmonds
White-Cousins-Rinaldo
VandeVelde-Bellmare-Lecavalier
Schultz-Streit
Grossman-MacDonald
Colaiacovo-Schenn
Mason
Go Flames Go!!!