Flames: 38-26-5, 81 points, 3rd in the Pacific, 7th in the West, 15th in NHL.
Blues: 44-20-5, 93 points, 1st in the Central, 2nd in the West, 3rd in NHL.
These are two teams that haven’t met in 5 months, and it was just the 3rd game of the year for the Flames. That’s quite an anomaly in the schedule for two teams in the same conference. That early meeting was what could simply be described as an elite team dominating a young and unproven squad. Since that time however, the Flames have turned into a team that still has off nights now and then (the most recent game against Colorado a good example) but most often has a chance to win every game against any opponent, especially if they are somehow behind going into the 3rd period. It’s a confident and talented young team, and it’s markedly different than the one that the Blues first met and beat easily 4-1 back in October.
The Blues have been the model of consistency all year long. They had one 4 game winless streak heading into Christmas, but outside of that, they haven’t lost more than 2 games in a row all year. It’s that consistency that allowed them to sneak up and overtake the Predators who looked nearly unbeatable all year until a recent slump, going 2-8-0 in their last 10. The Blues are not only leading their division, but they could arguably be the best team in the conference or the league. They are tied with Montreal for 2nd in the league with a .674 points per game percentage, trailing only the New York Rangers who own a .699. They rank 5th in the league in GF/G with 2.97 (just one spot ahead of the Flames at 2.91), and 7th in the league in GA/G with 2.42 (Calgary is 15th with 2.59 for comparison). They are strong in all 3 facets of the game, ranked 4th in 5 on 5 ratio, 4th on the powerplay, and 11th on the penalty kill but with a very strong 82.6%. The Blues are 6th in SF/G and 4th in SA/G. The Flames are 28th and 11th by comparison. The Blues are 2nd in faceoff percentage which will likely kill the Flames 25th ranked centers. The Blues have some good numbers and results so far, but it will be interesting to see how this team fares down the stretch with the 3rd toughest schedule remaining.
All that being said, the Flames and Blues have identical records in their last 10: 6-3-1. In those last 10 games, the Blues are averaging 2.80 GF/G and 2.40 GA/G. Conversely, in the last 10 games for the Flames they are averaging 3.40 GF/G and 2.50 GA/G. What’s notable about that is that the Blues’ offense is slightly worse than their average for the year, while their defense is pretty much on par, but looking at the Flames numbers their offense is substantially higher than their average for the year and their defense is actually better than their season average (most of that sample without Giordano). I’d have to ask Bingo, but I think their Corsi and Fenwick numbers are getting better as the year goes on too (I doubt they could have gotten much worse). Oh, and don’t look now, but Mikael Backlund is currently riding an 8 game point streak.
Playoff watch: Flames playoff chances are currently at 84.6% even with L.A. winning last night. The Flames need a 7-2-4 record over their remaining 13 games to get to a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs. A win tonight over the Blues would boost their chances by 5.1% which would be great considering it’s their toughest opponent remaining and they play them again in a couple weeks. A loss however would be -7.4% The OOT features a few games of interest:
Philadelphia @ Vancouver: a win by the Flyers would boost the Flames' chances by 0.8%.
Minnesota @ Nashville: a win by the Predators boosts the Flames' chances by 0.7%.
San Jose @ Winnipeg: confused by whom to cheer for? Don't be. A win by the Sharks actually improves the Flames' chances by 1.3%. A win for the Jets decreases their chances by 0.5%.
Roster Notes: The Flames had a full practice yesterday with no maintenance days (other than for the head coach who took a personal day…probably still steaming over that too many men on the ice call). Byron continues to skate by himself. No news on which goaltender will start. The Blues are only missing Kevin Shattenkirk who is now skating with the team following his abdominal surgery in early February. No word on whether he plays tonight, but he’s close to returning. The Blues have been lucky on the injury front this year only losing 126 man games to injury (24th in the NHL. Flames are 13th with 187). Blues' lineup is a little all over the place lately, so don't take these lines as anything more than a thought.
Flames
Gaudreau-Monahan-Hudler
Bouma-Backlund-Jones
Raymond-Jooris-Colborne
Bollig-Stajan-Ferland
Russell-Wideman
Brodie-Engelland
Schlemko-Diaz
Ramo?
Blues
Jaskin-Backes-Oshie
Schwartz-Lehtera-Tarasenko
Steen-Stastny-Jokinen
Berglund-Goc-Reaves
Gunnarsson-Pietrangelo
Bouwmeester-Michalek
Jackman-Lindbohm
Elliott
Go Flames Go!!!