Quote:
Originally Posted by Quincy Egg
I'm curious to see some people's reasoning as to why these type of percentages are sustainable.
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Because Corsi and PDO and regression to the mean of shooting percentage all have one underlying asumption. And that is that all shot attempts have an equal chance of going in.
Now in statistical analysis some eveidence to back up the above has been found that on average that team shot selection has no affect. The underlying assumption for this is that distance from the net is used in determining the quality of the chance.
So the statistical tools to evaluate shot quality are in their infancy. The most interesting one I find is the concept of the royal road which is a line down the center of the the ice. It was found that 75% of the goals scored in the NHL result from plays which the player or the pass crosses the center of the ice.
Annecdoatlly Calgary and especially the Gaudreau, Monahan, Hudler line have a high number of plays which would cross the royal road rather than lower percentage chances. I would like to see some rigourous statistical analysis using the flames data to see if this could be a reason twhy the flames score goals and win in spite of poor Corsi.