Originally Posted by Thunderball
The comparable for MLS in Calgary are not the Kickers, Strikers, Storm, Mustangs, United, or other miscellaneous team in a second or third or fourth rate league, owned by some fly-by-night owner, its the Boomers, and that is an outdated sample size.
Even then, pointing to those failures would be like saying Calgary wouldn't support NHL because they let the Cowboys fold, since that ignores the underlying deficiencies, namely league deficiencies, stadia deficiencies and (not so much in the case of the Cowboys) past ownership deficiencies.
All those failed teams prove is that Calgary isn't a very good minor league city in general (aside from Hockey), which the Cannons, Outlaws, 88s, Vipers, etc. also attest to. Weather is a pretty big factor in the demise of all these clubs too.
In 1980-81, the Boomers got 10-11k on average at McMahon, Calgary at that time being roughly a third of the size it is today (~550k). McMahon was an improper facility then for soccer, complete with astroturf and football lines. What killed the Boomers wasn't attendance (as they were around the average), but a small-time owner and the fact that the entire league itself was in financial meltdown, ultimately folding completely three years later.
If the Flames build a covered/indoor 20k/40k seat stadium designed for both soccer and football, and if the Flames actually want a second major tenant... the strength of the Flames LP ownership group, the cache of the league to capture casual fans, and the relative lack of spring/summer sports competition put Calgary near the front of the MLS line. The stadium and ownership mean everything to MLS, and MLS means everything to the casual fan. I'm not sure NASL is "big league" enough to capture the casual sports fan, even with a shiny new stadium.
Plus, looking at MLS, who's really left in the US to expand to that doesn't have MLB to compete with and is in the West to reduce travel distances?
Sacramento, Albuquerque, San Antonio, Las Vegas. That's about it.
Aside from the largest markets, there often isn't enough market for MLB and MLS (see Atlanta, Miami, Tampa... though sounds like Miami and Atlanta may get another chance, and why Orlando got a team and Tampa didn't). Minnesota and St. Louis are actively seeking expansion, but one has to think MLB is a damning factor against those markets.
Sacramento is probably the best option out of those, but if MLS wants to expand to 28 or even 32 (sounds like the endgame is 28-32 like the other North American leagues), there's room for at least 3-4 more Western US/Canada teams. Especially seeing as no major league seems to want to be the first to have a Las Vegas club, for multiple reasons. (MLS just rejected them until "at least after 2018")
Plus, even if it was announced with the new stadium and that was announced tomorrow, Calgary MLS wouldn't play until 2020 at the earliest. At Calgary's growth rate, that's another 150-200k people in the metro by then, which, assuming current growth rates, puts Calgary easily into the largest 40 US/Canadian markets.
Either way, stoked if the indoor stadium talk is true.
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