Quote:
Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher
I don't understand what you mean. If this year is a very deep year then comparing the value of this pick to several years that were below average is a bad comparison. Overcoming the strengths and weakness of one particular year? That sentence makes no sense to me.
This draft sounds similar to the 2013 and 2003 drafts in terms of depth. So if anything we should comparing directly to those two years.
In 2003 you would have had a chance at Corey Crawford, David Backes, Jimmy Howard and Maxim Lapierre and would've just missed on Shea Weber, Matt Carle and Patrice Bergeron.
It is shortsighted to focus on just the 50th pick however because having as many 2nd and 3rds as we do this year allows us to move up and potentially grab a guy we really, really like and think shouldn't have fallen as far as he did. The more 2nd rounders you have the easier it is to move up in the 1st round, acquire an additional 1st rounder or move up in the 2nd round. All of which could get you a real impact NHLer. Trying to deduce all the odds of this happening with the flexibility Treliving and Button have in terms of trading up is an exercise in futility.
2013 is too recent to analyze.
Bottom line is that additional 2nd rounders have value beyond what you are suggesting. Treliving could trade the pick for an upcoming NHLer as Sutter did in trading 2nd rounders for Kiprusoff and Bourque. He also traded a 2nd for Marcus Nilson who was a key part of the cup run. Given how many 2nds and 3rds the Flames have this year we have amazing flexibility in terms of packaging picks to move up to get someone we had rated much higher.
Any simplistic analysis that does not take into account these additional possibilities isn't a fair one IMO.
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Using 2003, the following impactful players were chosen between 45-60:
Crawford, C.
Bergeron, P.
Weber, S.
That's 3/15...again 20%
M.Carle, Lapierre, and Colin McDonald were also chosen....
You can add Carle and Lapierre as solid NHLers....that makes it 5/15....or 30%