Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Menace
I dunno, I just did a quick look, and from 2001 to 2010 I found about 30 good NHLers picked between spots 45 and 60.
That's 30 out of 150 draft picks....so 1/5 chance at a good NHLer....
If it was a higher 2nd rounder (like the one Kipper was traded for), I'd guess the odds would be better.
|
I guess it depends if you think you have above average scouting or not.
Based on the last 5 years or so it looks to me like we have above average scouting. So I'm happy to take chances on a 2nd rounder in a deep draft.
Your analysis wasn't taking into account the strength of the drafts either. Several of those drafts you factored in had terrible 1st rounds and thus obviously bad 2nd rounders.
As I said, a 2nd in a deep draft with a good scouting staff likely has a far, far higher chance of becoming an impact NHLer than you calculated.