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Originally Posted by Red
What did he predict exactly? That our stats would be better thus better standings? He was clearly wrong. Wouldn't be surprised if our stats are worse this year.
Possession stats based on shots taken/given up are just not that telling. Any team or a player can improve those stats by firing shots from everywhere with no good results overall. See Eakins's Oilers. Often times teams shoot from everywhere to break out of a scoring slump. If they get no results they lose the game while showing superior possession stats.
Good teams don't often have scoring slumps so this is a case in which a poor team can boost their possession stats with no real merit. All this just makes it hard to predict future results.
Add player turnover, injuries, changes to opponents rosters or style (kids playing for next years jobs late in the season as an example) and you really have no idea who will throw a bunch of shots at you in a given game.
With all these unknowns, why bother with corsi/fenwick? THey only tell you a part of the story from games already played.
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Literally every stat only tells part of the story. Even goals scored. That does not mean they don't have value when used in context. And yes, a team could theoretically try to raise their Corsi/Fenwick by shooting from everywhere. But a couple problems with that. First, poor shots usually result in turnovers which usually means a Corsi event against is coming right up, so no advantage there. Second, nobody actually does that, you're basically trying to discount the value by arguing against an extreme that is really only hypothetical.