Quote:
Originally Posted by Resolute 14
He was wrong, but interestingly, also one of not many that predicted we would be improved this year.
Edit: but as a useless exercise I won't take up, it would be interesting to see him do that using the actual numbers from this year and seeing how well that correlated.
|
What did he predict exactly? That our stats would be better thus better standings? He was clearly wrong. Wouldn't be surprised if our stats are worse this year.
Possession stats based on shots taken/given up are just not that telling. Any team or a player can improve those stats by firing shots from everywhere with no good results overall. See Eakins's Oilers. Often times teams shoot from everywhere to break out of a scoring slump. If they get no results they lose the game while showing superior possession stats.
Good teams don't often have scoring slumps so this is a case in which a poor team can boost their possession stats with no real merit. All this just makes it hard to predict future results.
Add player turnover, injuries, changes to opponents rosters or style (kids playing for next years jobs late in the season as an example) and you really have no idea who will throw a bunch of shots at you in a given game.
With all these unknowns, why bother with corsi/fenwick? THey only tell you a part of the story from games already played.