Quote:
Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe
Can someone please explain to an ignoramus like me PDO?
...
Honestly, this doesn't make sense to me. Why is shooting percentage and save percentage tied together in a metric that should equal 100? Anything above this is 'good luck' and everything below that is 'bad luck'?
|
Well, since shooting percentage and save percentage are reciprocals, that is why the view is that the mean average would be 100 - it has to be. The "luck" part comes from the theory that given a large enough sample size, every team will trend (regress) toward that mean. Logic tells us that good teams will trend toward a PDO over 100, and bad teams below - exactly as you noted.
IMO, the argument that PDO is a proxy for luck is incredibly flimsy, especially relative to the argument that shot attempts are a proxy for possession. The Canadiens have a high PDO because Carey Price is a damn good goalie. The Flames have a high PDO because they are shooting the lights out. What we are doing may not be sustainable into next year, but that does not automatically mean we are lucky. It just means that we are bucking the trend.