Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
That was a long way of providing a bald assertion that, all indication to the contrary (i.e. that chart posted on a prior page that had different stats' relationship to points earned) that you don't think possession statistics provide any predictive value. You're welcome to that view.
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No, that's not his "bald assertion".
Before we begin here, I'm with you. Most of the anger and ignorance here towards new statistics is due to emotion and lack of understanding.
What he is saying, is that while shot attempts tell part of the story and
do provide some predictive value, the story doesn't even come close to beginning and ending there. That's is where Enoch's, Resolute's and my frustration is.
For example, McCurdy's playoff prediction chart. It arbitrarily puts Fenwick far, far, far ahead of win%, goal differential and other predictors. While statistically, Fenwick close may be a better predictor, it's only very, very MARGINALLY better. Why should so much emphasis be put on that and ignore: strength of schedule, win%, goal differential or other predictors when the difference is so marginal?
That's where the frustration is. Shot attempts are a very useful part of analysis. They are not analysis. When a writer like Lambert says shot attempts show Calgary is terrible and everything else is just luck, that's the kind of singular thinking that made Toronto pick up Clarkson. Maybe a wider view is useful here.
As I've said earlier, Toronto and Colorado mean nothing. Toronto plays worse by every metric near the end of the season, not just corsi. Why do they get so many wins at the beginning of the season? Lambert's type of "analysis" would suggest it's luck. Really? The exact same pattern three years in a row? That's a pretty unsupported assertion. Colorado made some pretty significant personnel changes. Why is "luck" the explanation for their regression this year? They were pretty damn close to getting to the second round last year, on "luck"?
The assertion consistently is: Corsi wins and loses games, anything that is variable is "luck", or randomness. Despite the fact that if Calgary was getting "lucky" this year, that many wins would be a generational happening, not a few teams a year.
Having good Metrics is essential to being elite and having success. Being terrible will give you bad corsi. That doesn't mean that corsi explains everything between .