[CaptainCrunch]

I'd like to see your proof on your signature.

And does that calculation take into account random events, differences in tossing mechanics, effects of environment (table surface, air currents, some dude sneezing in your face.

Vegas gambles based on the theory above that even based on a linear betting strategy the player if he plays long enough reduces the odds of winning. If your signature was correct, Vegas wouldn't be in business.

Combine that if you calculate the probability of tossing lets say 65% losing and 35% winning over lets say 500 tosses, and then enact the tosses in real life then even if you end up not reaching the result of the calculation one or twice or 3 times out of 10 then the calculation is flawed.

The problem with advanced statistics is it makes the assumption that every team plays the same way, that every first line LW plays the same that every bottom 6 player plays the same over a set period of time, and explains a team winning not by systematic differences but by luck, which is the cop out formulation if you can't take into account inconsistencies int the environment full of inconsistencies.

If advanced statistics was the end all and be all then it could accurately predict results through a set time period (season, game period, etc) every time.

I would argue that advanced statistics is extremely valuable as a measuring tool to look at player performances in the past, but I would also argue that advanced stats, that can't take into account random events, inconsistencies between two teams in terms of game planning puck consistancies, quality of scoring chances etc, that its not a predictive tool.

I mean frankly and going back to your signature, Advanced Stats is a beautiful way to game a system, to induce people to bet, but in the end unless you are tossing coins in a vacuum with a nasa calibrated robot arm doing the tossing then its not something you can base predictions on.

A guy like Gaudreau for example is a fly in the ointment in terms of possession numbers, because he might go through a game with a very low possession number and still burn you with two goals.

Kris Russell by all advanced Stats the other night had a terrible game, however he was incredibly key in terms of winning games.

This isn't money ball, and thats the issue with Advanced Stats users, they believe that they can be predictive with hockey like with baseball. But baseball is a fixed and fairly linear game with specific roles. In hockey the minute that a defenseman for example makes a decision to not do a defenseman like thing, the stats don't support it.

The whole, unsustainable because of Colorado, and Toronto because look at advanced stats, is flawed, if Calgary had the exact same line up issues that those two teams had (Toronto had no defensive conciousness, got great goaltending and while they had good top pairing bluelines they didn't have much after that) Colorado had fabulous forward talent and AHL blueline and got great goaltending). Then you could argue that advanced stats means something.

but Calgary isn't winning the same way as those teams, certainly don't have the same team construction, and what looks like higher team fitness then any other team in the league (because the fitness level is another calculation that's not taken into account).

I'm a believer that statistics can help you analyze your talent to a point, but as far as predicting that the Flames aren't sustainable or they're going to drop badly next year without even knowing next years lineup, or game time strategy etc. Is just blustering without knowing.

By the way, if you're looking at flipping 3 heads f versus 7 tails is between 10 or 15 percent