Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
This discussion is pretty similar to the one that came up earlier in the thread when that graph was posted, so no point going over old ground. All I'll say is it's based on a methodology with a record of making correct predictions about future team success. That doesn't mean it's always right and it doesn't mean the Flames won't make the playoffs in spite of the methodology. It's based on this, subject to a bunch of adjustments made by Micah McCurdy.
http://www.silversevensens.com/2014/...tions-with-pip |
Ahh, good. I asked earlier what went into his model, but never saw a response. So thank you for this.
So the chart is basically just rolling fenwick, adjusted for schedule. Easy to see why it hates Calgary.
As a proxy for measuring possession, I completely understand why SAT/Corsi and USAT/Fenwick rely on five on five. But if we are going to be predicting outcomes, I think models such as these would be wise to include special teams. One of the reasons why fancystats guys can't understand why the Flames win is because they discount special teams. Over our last 25 games (back to the home loss vs. Florida), the Flames are running at 20% power play (14-70) and 92% penalty kill (44-48). We also take, by far, the fewest penalties in the league, so that limits the opposition's chances.
So while we might be drowning in possession stats in the 80% of the game that is played at even strength, the fact that we are dominating the other 20% right now is a major reason why the Flames defy Corsi/Fenwick-based models. And while I would agree with anyone who says 20%/92% are not figures that are sustainable indefinitely, nor should they be simply discounted as "luck".